Tras la fuerte caída de los mercados en los últimos días, Alan Brown, director de inversión de Schroders, destaca que “las ventas forzadas de los inversores apalancados y las estrategias de protección de capital conducen a caídas exageradas en los precios”, afirma. Aunque el riesgo de una recesión ha aumentado notablemente y existe el riesgo de que los mercados creen su propia realidad al dañar la confianza, la gestora espera que el crecimiento continúe aunque a un nivel débil.
El experto explica la continuidad de la huída hacia activos refugio como los bonos de gobierno y el oro, pues el rendimiento del bono americano a 10 años está poniendo a prueba el nivel del 2% y el oro apunta hacia los 1.880 dólares. “Con los rendimientos de los bonos de gobierno y los mercados cayendo, la valoración relativa de la renta variable frente a los bonos está alcanzando extremos. Muchas malas noticias están ya reflejadas en el precio”, apostilla.
Lea el comentario completo en inglés a continuación:
"Two items of news lie behind the continuing market rout: The sharp decline in the Philadelphia Index and the news that other Eurozone countries were likely to seek to negotiate collateral arrangements from Greece to match the deal that Finland has achieved. As such this is a continuation of the same two themes, concern over the prospects for world growth and concerns over the stability of the Eurozone. As often happens at times of great uncertainty, natural value buyers will often sit on the side lines rather than try to catch the proverbial "falling knife". Thin August markets compound the problem. Meanwhile, more favourable news, such as the July industrial production numbers, are being ignored. In this kind of environment forced selling from leveraged investors and capital protection strategies can find no buyers leading to exaggerated price declines. While the risks of double dip have clearly risen and there is a danger that the market could create its own reality by hurting confidence, we expect that growth will continue, albeit at an anaemic level.
The developments in the Eurozone do continue to be disturbing. The political resolve to continue supporting the peripheral countries is clearly under pressure. Moves by a growing number of countries to demand collateral threatens to undermine the entire bail out package.
And so the flight to the "safe havens" of government bonds and gold continues with US 10 year yields challenging the 2% level and Gold shooting up to 1,880. With both government bond yields and equity markets falling, the relative valuation of equities versus bonds is reaching extremes. Much bad news is already in the price."
